Spring Training 2015 Preview: What Needs to Happen for Rangers to Contend

I'm looking at spring training previews as I do around this time of year, and can't help but notice a disheartening similarity in the analysis of these articles: A whole lotta prognosticators like the Rangers to finish last in the AL West in 2015.

Damn, man, 2010 seemed like it was so long ago.

My natural inclination is to argue with these predictions, being the Rangers zealot I am. Ah, that's the beauty of spring training, when hope springs eternal. Clean slate. A few things have to happen, though, for the Rangers to climb out of the cellar of 67-95, the worst record in the AL and third-worst in all of baseball, and back into contention:

1. Stay healthy. 

Good heaven, had the Rangers been on a corporate insurance plan last season, they would have blown through their deductible in the first week of the season. The Rangers used more players than any team in MLB history last year. I follow the team religiously and hadn't even heard of some of the dudes on the roster.

Fielder

I gotta single (or double?) out Prince Fielder and Shin Soo-Choo because they'll receive $230 million from Texas for the remainder of their contracts. They were supreme non-factors last year, and it destroyed the club. After neck surgery, Fielder is reportedly all-systems go for spring training, while Choo had ankle and elbow injuries that are apparently improved, as well. They must be on the field for the Rangers to contend.

2. Bullpen has to answer question marks.

Neftali Feliz, who looked good with an average fastball over 95 mph at the end of last year, is set to close. That's fine. But who's setting him up? That's anyone's guess, an odd statement for a franchise whose bullpen was a strength the last few years. Tanner Scheppers was a solid setup man two seasons ago, then transitioned into the rotation and (you guessed it) got hurt last year. He's back, but is his confidence? Roman Mendez is a live arm, but unproven at age 24. Kyuji Fujikawa, once a sought-after commodity in Japan, had Tommy John surgery early in the 2013 season and spent last year recovering. Shawn Tolleson? Solid last year, but unreliable in high-leverage situations. I'm hoping we sign a veteran to shore up the bullpen.

3. First-year manager Jeff Banister's words have to translate to results. 

Banister

Banister's filling some gigantic shoes. Ron Washington may not have been the best X's and O's manager. He may not have paid enough attention to analytics. But that dude could fire up a locker room. That dude could give players confidence. During the glory days of 2009-2012, Washington built one of the closest-knit groups I've ever seen. The signals to each other from field to dugout, the antlers, the ducks on the pond ... it didn't seem to matter what park they played in. Those teams were able to block out the noise and win 90 or more games for four straight seasons (2010-2013)

Since stepping in, Banister's said all the right things. But can he repair a worn down locker room? Can he make the players believe in his vision?

4. The rotation has to stay (mostly) in tact.

Darvish

Yu Darvish, Derek Holland, Yovani Gallardo and Colby Lewis are far from a horrific first four. Let's say lefty Ross Detwiler, acquired from Washington in the offseason, claims the final spot. Sure, it could be better, but consider Matt Harrison (who, let's face it, may never pitch again after undergoing spinal fusion surgery in 2014) and Martin Perez won't be available until after the All-Star break at the earliest. That means an injury to any of these guys, particularly Darvish or Holland, would set this team back quite a bit. A lot of teams could say that about their 1-2 starters, though.

5. Left field puzzle gets solved.

Choo will likely shift from left to right field, his more natural position. That leaves a big unknown in left. Ryan Rua, Jake Smolinski, Ryan Ludwick, Nate Schierholtz and Michael Choice will compete. Either way, that's likely an area of weakness, unless someone comes out of nowhere.

Less than three questions answered: Similar season to 2014
Three of five questions answered: Hang around .500
Four of five questions answered: Contend for wild card
All questions answered: Contend for AL West

I know it's Billy Beane and yada yada, but Oakland lost its best players (Josh Donaldson, Jon Lester, Yoenes Cespedes, Jeff Samardzija, Brandon Moss, Derek Norris) and doesn't impress me. If they do it again, consider me blindsided. The Astros undeniably have pieces, but are still another year or two away. Anaheim and Seattle are good. That's who we have to chase.

It's not out of the realm of possibility for Texas to contend. Just gotta get some of these questions answered. All I know is baseball can't get here soon enough. Pitchers and catchers report on Friday.