Friday, January 21, 2011

Updated predictions on way-too-early Texas Rangers batting order/pitching rotation

Dallas Morning News baseball writer Evan Grant wrote a nice piece a few weeks ago regarding the temptation to place Nelson Cruz into the No. 4 spot in the Rangers batting order next season.

I said the same thing shortly after we signed Adrian Beltre
, as it became clear that Vladimir Guerrero, last season's cleanup hitter, wasn't going to return to Arlington in 2011.

But, as Grant pointed out, Cruz's numbers in the No. 4 slot have not been good. He's tried to do too much in the past when he's hitting cleanup.

OK, so I'll come around to Beltre as the cleanup guy. He's used to hitting 4.

Here's my updated Rangers batting order, with 25 days until pitchers and catchers report. Can't wait.

1. Elvis Andrus, SS
2. Michael Young, DH
3. Josh Hamilton, LF
4. Adrian Beltre, 3B
5. Nelson Cruz, RF
6. Ian Kinsler, 2B
7. Mitch Moreland, 1B
8. Yorvit Torrealba, C
9. Julio Borbon, CF

Starting pitching order

1. C.J. Wilson, L
2. Colby Lewis, R
3. Brandon Webb, R
4. Tommy Hunter, R
5. Derek Holland, L

Late-inning bullpen

Primary righty set-up relievers: Frank Francisco, Alexi Ogando, Darren O'Day
Primary lefty set-up relievers: Darren Oliver, Arthur Rhoades
Closer: Neftali Feliz, R

Looking pretty good, I'd say. Still should be favored to win the AL West.

Wednesday, January 5, 2011

Reaction on Rangers taking gamble, signing Adrian Beltre

I must admit that I was initially hesitant, putting it mildly, to the idea of the Rangers signing free agent third baseman Adrian Beltre.

He's really had two spectacular offensive seasons in his 13-year career and both of them (2004, 2010) came on contract years. Go figure.

He's 31 years old and asking for monster money.

I cringe a bit asking Michael Young to change positions...again.

Beltre had random dugout brushoffs in Boston. Is that to be taken seriously, or was he simply joking with Victor Martinez when he took a swing at Martinez for touching his head?

Signing Beltre likely means no Vladimir Guerrero, someone I was open to re-signing on a financially affordable one-year deal, in 2011.

I began to think about it some more, though, and the more I reflected, the more I began to come around on the idea of Beltre being the Rangers starting third baseman in 2011.

• Our defense improves immediately. Beltre is known to be one of the premier defensive third basemen in baseball. The upgrade of having Beltre at the hot corner over Young is thought to be significant in baseball metric circles. I'm OK with this. We don't have Cliff Lee anymore. Quite a few of our pitchers are going to pitch to contact and rely on our defense to make plays. If newly-signed Brandon Webb can get his sinker working again, for example, a whole lot of ground balls will be rolling to Beltre, Elvis Andrus and Ian Kinsler. All above-average defenders with super range.

• The terms of the contract are pretty big. What else did you expect from a Scott Boras client? But general manager Jon Daniels did a good job of not getting carried away. Beltre is, after all, 31. The contract will be announced at six years and $96 million. Yeah, that seems massive. But the Rangers can void the final year of the contract under certain conditions (that haven't been laid out yet). In the event Beltre is injured, this will be nice. So really, the guaranteed money is five years, $80 million. I can live with that. We have money to spend with new ownership and not signing Lee. Beltre was the best available free agent.

• We're a better team with Beltre, short- and long-term, than with Guerrero. I loved Vladdy last year and he was one of the main reasons our offense was so feared. If we would have signed Guerrero, it would have been to another one-year deal. It was no secret he faded down the stretch and into the postseason. Vlad will be 36 in February. Not sure how much he has left. Beltre will be 32 on Opening Day. Five guaranteed years is a little scary — we'll be relying on Beltre to play at a high level when he's 37 — but for the next few years, I'd think we can get quite a bit out of him if he stays healthy.

• Yes, asking Young to move positions again is tough, but it would definitely help the team. With Young at the DH and in a super utility role, we upgrade our defense immediately and give guys more of a rest when they need it. Andrus seemed to tire a bit late in the regular season. Kinsler spent a decent amount of time on the disabled list last year. We can keep more guys fresh, we don't have to trade Young and we can keep Young, the face of the franchise and the ultimate clubhouse role model, in the everyday lineup.

• I don't like using Rangers Ballpark in Arlington as a bailout option to justify the hype around someone's offensive expectations, but I think with Beltre, it deserves heavy consideration. He played basically his entire career with the Dodgers and the Mariners. Two of the most pitcher-friendly parks around. Last year in Boston, his numbers (.321, 28-102, .365 OBP, .919 OPS) took off. Contract year, yes. But also more of a hitter-friendly park. Arlington is a hitter's dream, and he'll be stacked in the middle of one of the best lineups in baseball. Hopefully Beltre can continue to put up good numbers.

Speaking of that lineup...I've read a lot of blogs out there that have immediately inserted Beltre into the No. 4 spot. I'm going another route. Anyone else notice how clutch Nelson Cruz was last year when healthy? The guy's numbers would have been insane if he wouldn't have gone on the DL. And I think he has more raw power than Beltre.

Therefore, my 2011 Rangers batting order:

1. Elvis Andrus
2. Michael Young
3. Josh Hamilton
4. Nelson Cruz
5. Adrian Beltre
6. Ian Kinsler
7. Mitch Moreland
8. Yorvit Torrealba
9. Julio Borbon

It took me a while to come around on Beltre. The rumor's been out there for over a month now. But I think I'm getting there.

Tuesday, January 4, 2011

The ultimate Rangers holiday gift

First post of 2011. Happy New Year, from the Gametime in Arlington blog.

I received many Rangers gifts this holiday season: Two T-shirts, a gift card, a Rangers patch and a DVD recapping the memorable World Series run. All awesome gifts.

This one, however, has to be my favorite of them all:



Stellar. And a total surprise. My girlfriend and I did a holiday gift exchange this year, and this was her big gift to me. I had no idea.

It's a frame of several different World Series components. As displayed on the upper left, a picture of my brother and me in Arlington for Game 4 of the Fall Classic. Then, on the bottom left, a World Series commemorative patch. And on the right, a place for my ticket. The space fit my StubHub ticket perfectly. Looks awesome.

Now I just have to find a place for it on my wall.