With only a little more than a week left of regular-season baseball, the Texas Rangers sit at 86-65, 3.5 games ahead of Anaheim in the American League West.
In the 2010 regular season, the defending AL champions compiled a 90-72 record and won the West by nine games over second-place Oakland.
There's a good chance, with 11 games remaining this season, the Rangers will finish with a better regular-season record in 2011 than in 2010.
To me, that says a ton about fifth-year manager Ron Washington. I like to say I'm proud to be a Rangers fan because of the team's sense of direction these past few years. The Rangers have improved their regular-season record each year Washington's been at the helm in Arlington. How's this for direction:
2007: 75-87
2008: 79-83
2009: 87-75
2010: 90-72 (AL West champions, AL champions, lost in World Series)
2011: ?
With these numbers in mind, is this year's Texas team better than the 2010 edition?
I'm not sure I'm ready to go that far yet. Last season, there was a sense of confidence and borderline cockiness in games that Cliff Lee took the mound, especially in the postseason. This year, Lee is pitching on a dominant Phillies team that owns the best record in baseball (97-65) and will enter the postseason as the clear World Series favorite.
Really, the 2011 vs. 2010 debate boils down to one question: Can C.J. Wilson be 'that guy?'
You know, the guy the Rangers can turn to when they desperately need a victory to stay alive in a postseason series. The guy who mows down American League lineups with the pressure mounting. The guy who makes you feel more at ease about a playoff series because the opposing team has to beat him twice in order to eliminate the Rangers. Asked quite simply, can C.J. Wilson even come close to resembling Cliff Lee from 2010?
Lee was, by all accounts, absurd last postseason, to the point where I'd go to bed seriously contemplating if the guy was human. Lee went 3-2 with a 47/2 K/BB ratio and an ERA near 3.00. He was hit around a bit in the World Series, but was unstoppable in the ALDS and ALCS, more so than any pitcher I've ever watched on TV.
Lee proved that a legitimate, shutdown ace at the top of the Rangers' rotation could send them all the way to the World Series. Wilson doesn't carry the same intimidation factor as Lee, but he's pitched like an ace in 2011, the final year of his contract.
Wilson enjoyed a breakout season in 2010, going 15-8 with a 3.35 ERA and a 170/93 K/BB ratio. I've said many times before on this blog that if Wilson cut down his walk totals, he could be a front-line ace. This year, he's approached that status.
In 2011, Wilson is currently 16-7 with a 2.97 ERA and a 198/69 K/BB ratio. The walk totals are still a bit high, but at least it's progress from last year. He's giving up more hits (184 in 2011, 164 in 2010) and home runs (16 in 2011, 10 in 2010), but he's issuing considerably fewer free passes and striking out more hitters as well.
Wilson, by all accounts, has been an ace in 2011. For the Rangers to be a better team than last season, though, Wilson will have to elevate his game even more in two weeks.
Offensively, the teams are very comparable. A closer look:
2011 likely postseason batting order:
1. Ian Kinsler, 2B
2. Elvis Andrus, SS
3. Josh Hamilton, OF
4. Michael Young, DH
5. Adrian Beltre, 3B
6. Nelson Cruz, OF
7. Mike Napoli, C
8. David Murphy, OF
9. Mitch Moreland, 1B
2010 World Series batting order:
1. Elvis Andrus, SS
2. Michael Young, 3B
3. Josh Hamilton, OF
4. Vladimir Guerrero, DH
5. Nelson Cruz, OF
6. Ian Kinsler, 2B
7. Jeff Francoeur, OF
8. Bengie Molina, C
9. Mitch Moreland, 1B
Pretty close. Beltre (.288, 25 HR, 91 RBI) and Napoli (.312, 26 HR, 67 RBI, .411 OBP) have been huge additions to the offense.
Defensively, you'd have to say the 2011 team is superior, with Beltre holding down the hot corner.
The pitching depth, one through five, seems to be better this season with Wilson, Colby Lewis (12-10, 4.29 ERA, 150/52 K/BB), Alexi Ogando (13-8, 3.58 ERA, 123/43 K/BB), Matt Harrison (12-9, 3.56 ERA, 112/52 K/BB) and Derek Holland (14-5, 4.02 ERA, 148/63 K/BB). The top of last year's rotation, though, with Lee, Wilson and Lewis was tough to beat.
This year's bullpen is certainly stronger with the addition of Mike Adams and Koji Uehara. Closer Neftali Feliz was much better in 2010 (2.73 ERA, 71/18 K/BB) than he's been in 2011 (3.04 ERA, 45/28 K/BB).
But to me, it all comes back to Wilson, whom the Rangers will have to make a decision on in the offseason. Should the Rangers make the postseason, you're looking at shelling out $90-$100 million to keep the 30-year-old Wilson. Yes, he's 30, but since he's primarily pitched out of the bullpen, his arm shouldn't have as much wear and tear as other starting pitchers who are that age. I'm very tempted to spend the money, especially considering the best free agent pitcher this offseason figures to be Chicago's Mark Buehrle (32 years old).
I hope C.J. makes it a tough decision for Texas general manager Jon Daniels and company. A deep playoff run would certainly do the trick.
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