Wednesday, January 18, 2012

Yu Darvish officially signs with Texas: What will rotation look like?

The final tally is in: $111.7 million.

That's how much the Texas Rangers spent ($51.7 million negotiating fee, $60 million contract over six years) on 25-year-old Japanese star pitcher Yu Darvish. The Rangers made it official on Wednesday, inking Darvish a mere 30 minutes before the 4 p.m. deadline. It was widely assumed that Texas and Darvish would reach an agreement.

I'm excited and nervous, but mostly excited. Darvish went 18-6 with a league-best 1.44 earned-run average and 276 strikeouts last season in Japan. For his career, Darvish is 93-38 with a 1.99 ERA.

He's constantly compared to Japanese countryman Daisuke Matsuzaka, but I'm confident Darvish will have more MLB success. Why? Because the Rangers have been scouting Darvish for years and the Texas scouting team is one of the best in baseball. If the scouting department, general manager Jon Daniels and team president Nolan Ryan are all fully on board, count me on that ship as well.

The Rangers didn't go all in with Darvish, but they bet quite a bit of the pot. They need him to produce immediately; not necessarily as an ace, but as a productive starter who gives the team a chance to win most nights he takes the mound. The Rangers figure to have a young starting pitching staff next season, and Darvish may have to ease some of the load off the young guys. The way I see the rotation shaking out:

1. Colby Lewis, RHP, age 32
2. Derek Holland, LHP, 25
3. Yu Darvish, RHP, 25
4. Matt Harrison, LHP, age 26
5. Neftali Feliz, RHP, age 23

That would mean moving 28-year-old Alexi Ogando to the bullpen, while Scott Feldman would take on the long relief role.

Lewis will become a free agent after the 2012 season, but this is a pitching rotation that will have great stability in the coming years. Even if Texas lets Lewis walk, Ogando and Feldman have had starting success, while Martin Perez, Neil Ramirez and Robbie Ross wait in the still-strong farm system.

Roy Oswalt remains an option in free agency, but it seems the Rangers are set in their rotation. As it is, they are seven deep, and Oswalt will command $8-10 million on a one-year deal. A younger Oswalt would be tempting, but signing him seems a bit pointless since you'd have to bump another starter from the rotation.

The Rangers and Angels should be involved in an extremely close race next season, with Seattle and Oakland likely falling behind in the division race by double digits early on.

Anaheim's starting rotation (Jered Weaver, Dan Haren, C.J. Wilson, Ervin Santana, Jerome Williams) is clearly superior to the Rangers. Then again, the Texas batting order is considerably better than Anaheim's, even with the addition of Albert Pujols.

The Rangers' rotation should be good enough to allow the team to flirt with 90-95 victories. Hopefully, Darvish can be a key contributor.

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