Saturday, August 25, 2012

Can Rangers make another World Series run without No. 1 starter?

This Texas Rangers team, at least on paper, doesn't always pass the eye test as a World Series contender.

The reason: If the postseason started today, Texas would likely have a playoff rotation that consisted of Matt Harrison, Yu Darvish, Ryan Dempster and Derek Holland.

Harrison owns a stellar 3.04 ERA this season and is 15-7, but has not experienced playoff success. Darvish, despite 172 strikeouts with more than a month left in the regular season, still has major control issues (80 walks, 4.51 ERA, 1.42 WHIP). Giving free passes in the postseason is akin to inviting death himself to your dinner table. Dempster, despite a sterling 2.99 ERA, has been blitzed twice for eight runs since switching to the American League. Holland's ERA remains a shade under 5.00.

Yet the Rangers, at 74-51, own the best record in the AL. Texas is six games ahead of Oakland and inexplicably 8.5 games ahead of underachieving Anaheim.

Is there really a problem here?

On offense, not really - it's fireworks as usual. The Rangers' 645 runs are the best in baseball. Josh Hamilton is starting to morph into feared-hitter mode again, and Adrian Beltre has been about as beastly as they come lately, with five home runs in his last three games. The third baseman hit for the cycle last night in an 8-0 stomping of Minnesota. David Murphy and Mitch Moreland have been revelations at the plate lately. Geovany Soto is an upgrade over Yorvit Torealba (dropped a few weeks ago) at catcher, especially with Mike Napoli injured (and hitting an unimpressive .223). Elvis Andrus has enjoyed his best season in his four years in the majors, hitting .298, getting on base at a .366 clip and carrying a .757 OPS (all career highs). The offense is elite.

I think where the concern sets in is at the top of the rotation. Make no mistake - the Rangers have a deep rotation. But not a top-shelf rotation. Texas has four or five No. 2 or 3 starters, but not a No. 1. Over the course of an entire season, that will win you a lot of games. But what about in the postseason, when one series it all it takes to pack your bags? Let's say Texas faces New York. Or Detroit. Or heck, even Anaheim. All of those teams have legitimate aces (Justin Verlander, CC Sabathia, Jered Weaver), while the Rangers do not. That scares me.

I have a lot of confidence in this team, though, because the offense is coming around to consistently pounding the ball, and the starting pitching staff should at least keep the Rangers in most games. Another vital factor to the team's success is the bullpen, arguably the strength of the squad in 2012. Joe Nathan (2.59 ERA, 59/8 K/BB ratio) has been steady, while Mike Adams, Robbie Ross and Alexi Ogando have been very strong as well. Koji Uehara, who was pitching well before he went on the DL in June, is due to return this weekend.

There's no question this team has the depth to make another run to the World Series. I just hope the lack of a No. 1 starter doesn't become the Achilles heel.

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