Much of the Rangers success from 2010-present has been due to brilliant offseason moves by general manager Jon Daniels around this time of year. JD seems to thrive in the hot stove spotlight. We've seen it pay off in recent years: signing Yu Darvish and Joe Nathan last offseason; Adrian Beltre before 2011; Vladimir Guerrero and Colby Lewis before 2010.
Following a wild-card flame-out after an otherwise solid 93-69 regular season, it seems like JD will be shuffling the deck quite a bit this postseason with many Rangers players hitting free agency.
I'm far from a general manager (though it would be pretty spectacular to dine with JD sometime; I'm not ashamed at all to say that), but here are five moves I would make with the Rangers this offseason:
1. Let Josh Hamilton walk.
This will be a tough call, but I think Hamilton's time in Texas is over. To sign the 31-year-old Hamilton, general managers will have to be comfortable pulling a five-year, $100-million trigger. I'm not comfortable with that, given Hamilton's unstable history.
Let's be honest, though: Hamilton's five-year reign in Texas was magnificent. Who can forget the epic 2008 Home Run Derby display at Yankee Stadium? Or his 2010 MVP season, when he hit .359 with 32 homers and 100 RBIs - all while missing an entire month. That year, he was the most complete player I've ever watched play baseball. Amidst and up-and-down 2012, he reminded us of his Roy Hobbs-like abilities when he blasted four home runs in a single game in Baltimore.
All that said: It's too risky to offer him more than three years. His injury history, age, and drug/alcohol addiction makes this one of the more unique free agent situations I can remember. Hamilton had stretches of sheer absence in 2012, where his plate discipline was abysmal, and his focus was lackluster. The outfield drop in Oakland in the final game of the regular season sprints to the top of my mind.
That said, he still hit .285 with 43 homers and 128 RBIs. Some team will probably offer more than three years. It just shouldn't be Texas.
2. Make a major run at Zack Greinke.
I would use the money that otherwise would have gone to Hamilton to try and acquire the 29-year-old free agent Greinke. The right-hander is the top free agent of this year's class and will likely require five years and more than $100 million. I'd be more comfortable dishing that sort of money to Greinke (who, granted, comes with his share of questions, as it pertains to his battles with anxiety and depression) than I would with Hamilton.
Having Greinke (at age 29) and Yu Darvish (at age 26) atop the rotation for years to come would be awesome. It would be smokin' aces 1 and 1A. Add Matt Harrison, Alexi Ogando and Derek Holland to the rotation (with Colby Lewis and Neftali Feliz due back at midseason), and you're looking at an incredibly strong group.
3. Move Jurickson Profar into everyday lineup.
Sure, he's only 19 (will be 20 on Opening Day 2013), but from everything I've read that discusses his skill-set and makeup, he appears ready for full-time duty. The lineup could use some spark, punch and added youth as well. It was lethargic toward the end of last year - probably a result from little rest the last three seasons.
It seems pointless to have Profar on the team as a utility infielder (would be better off in Triple-A), so the decision needs to be made whether he's plugged in at second base or shortstop. Of course, that would move either Ian Kinsler or Elvis Andrus from their natural positions. It can be argued that Michael Young should be relegated to utility infielder because of recent struggles (and rotate 2B, SS, DH between Kinsler, Andrus and Profar), but Young is still due $16 million next season in the final year of his contract. That would be quite the expensive utility infielder.
Possible solutions: Move Kinsler to outfield and plug Profar in at second; trade Kinsler for starting pitching; trade Andrus (a Scott Boras client who's under team control for another two years) for starting pitching.
My vote is for Kinsler to move to the outfield because I wouldn't like to see the Rangers trade him. The last thing I want Texas to do is trade Elvis. That would take me weeks, maybe months, to get over.
4. Bring back Mike Napoli
The Rangers declined to make a one-year, $13.3 million qualifying offer to Napoli last week, but that doesn't mean they can't bring the free agent back. I've heard a lot of rumored interest in catcher J.P. Arencibia from the Blue Jays, but last year's .233 average was a career high in his three years in the bigs. He's in the prime of his career at age 26, but I'll pass. He strikes out a ton too. Napoli is a proven commodity, and while he struggled in hitting .227 last year, I still like the idea of a Napoli-Geovanny Soto split in 2013.
5. Move Ian Kinsler out of the leadoff spot.
Yes, 2012 was a down year, but Kinsler doesn't have a look of a guy that should hit in the leadoff spot. His average was .256, while his on-base percentage was only .326, a career low. He drew 60 walks, down from 89 in 2011. Andrus, by contrast, hit .286 with a .349 on-base percentage, both career highs. He makes more sense in the leadoff spot to me.
It will be really interesting to see what kind of moves the Rangers come up with. Let the hot stove season begin.
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