I'm not sure I fully understand why the Rangers' offseason is being widely deemed as a failure due to their lack of activity on the trade and free agent markets. Perhaps if Texas stumbles to a third- or fourth-place finish in 2013, the doubters will have the final laugh, but I'm not ready to entertain that thought.
It's amusing to take note of how fans perceive offseason success. In hold-'em poker terms, Texas general manager Jon Daniels has called "check" for the last two months, while other teams have either went all-in (Angels, Dodgers) or bet heavily (Braves, Blue Jays).
When it comes to fan perception, nothing is worse than calling "check" in the offseason. Calling "check" is like saying you don't care.
The way I see it? Sure, this offseason for Texas has been watching-paint-dry boring. But it hasn't been a failure.
The problem with headline-grabbing deals is that many free agents are flagrantly overpaid. It essentially comes down to overpaying for the right ones. I would have overpaid for Zack Greinke, for instance, but that didn't work out. I have no interest in overpaying for Michael Bourn or Kyle Lohse, both Scott Boras clients who need to take their fat-pocket aspirations elsewhere. Four or five years for Bourn, when you have Leonis Martin and Craig Gentry on reasonable deals? Three years for Lohse with the rotation as it stands, plus Colby Lewis due back after the first month? Thanks, Boras, but I'll take my chances.
Fans treat smart trigger restraint like it's a form of complacency. That needs to stop.
My sense: The Rangers will field a good club in 2013. They didn't overpay for anyone in the offseason, so financial flexibility remains in play. They also haven't traded a top prospect (yet, at least), so the option to either deal one for proven talent or bring a few up ourselves remains as well. Plus, if the Rangers are near the top of the division by the All-Star break, they could always trade a coveted prospect for a front-line starter or masher (a la Cliff Lee in 2010).
The rotation, as it stands, should look like this:
1. Yu Darvish, R
2. Derek Holland, L
3. Matt Harrison, L
4. Alexi Ogando, R
5. Martin Perez (L), Justin Grimm (R) or Robbie Ross (L)
Colby Lewis is ahead of his rehab schedule and is set to rejoin the rotation sometime in May.
The batting order, as it stands, should look like this:
1. Ian Kinsler, 2B
2. Elvis Andrus, SS
3. Lance Berkman, DH
4. Adrian Beltre, 3B
5. Nelson Cruz, RF
6. David Murphy, LF
7. A.J. Pierzynski, C
8. Mitch Moreland, 1B
9. Leonis Martin/Craig Gentry, CF
Fans need to settle down a bit. Yes, the lineup is without Josh Hamilton, Michael Young and Mike Napoli, but it's still strong.
There's one piece I'd like to see added, and sooner rather than later: Jurickson Profar. The 19-year-old prospect will likely start the season in Triple-A, but I'd love to see him before too long. The Angels called Mike Trout up on April 28 last year, so maybe Texas can do something like that.
It's just that I have no idea where Profar fits into this lineup. I've tried so many things. Moving Berkman to first base and sliding Profar into the DH slot doesn't give Profar regular experience in the field, where his glove is reportedly well above-average, and puts Berkman in the field at age 37. Moving Kinsler to first base and Profar to second base goes against what the club said about leaving Kinsler at second this year. It seems like it will take an injury or trade to get Profar in the lineup. I'll probably have a follow-up blog that gets into this situation more in detail.
For now, I like where the team stands heading into spring training in less than a month (thank goodness!). I'm ready for the winter to be over.
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