A few things have to happen for the Texas Rangers to emerge as American League West champions this season. In a first half littered with injuries to the starting rotation, it's amazing Texas sits at 54-41, two games back of Oakland in the division.
Matt Harrison, Alexi Ogando, Colby Lewis and Neftali Feliz all missed significant time on the shelf in the first half. The offense at times has looked putrid. To be sitting at 54-41 is a testament to this team's depth.
That said, Texas won't make the playoffs if it rides this personnel into August and September. Situations have to change. Here are my top 5 things that have to happen for the Rangers to make a playoff run this year:
1. Pitchers coming off the DL have to make an impact.
Texas will welcome a slew of players back from the disabled list to start the second half of the season: Yu Darvish is set to return Monday. Alexi Ogando could follow a day later. Colby Lewis and Matt Harrison are targeting late August. Here's my rotation for now:
Yu Darvish
Derek Holland
Alexi Ogando
Martin Perez
Nick Tepesch/Ross Wolf
I don't feel comfortable with Tepesch or Justin Grimm right now. They're tossing beach balls to the plate. Since June 1, Grimm's ERA is 9.91, while Tepesch is sporting a 6.14 mark. Hitters have brought the rookie duo back to life. Perhaps the Tepesch/Wolf combo can get us by until Lewis or Harrison (or, perhaps best of all, a trade) is a legitimate option.
2. The bullpen cannot be overworked.
Tanner Scheppers and Robbie Ross were exceptional at the beginning of the year, but faded before the All-Star break because of heavy workloads. The addition of Joakim Soria, along with the out-of-nowhere ascension of Neal Cotts, should help this cause. If Neftali Feliz can return in August or September, it would be in a relief role and could also take some of the workload off the two young guns.
3. The A's need to have a normal second half.
The A's turn into a different beast in the second half of the season. It feels like they never, ever (insert Chris Jericho voice here) eeeeever lose in August or September. October, sure, but not before that. Texas could use some help from the A's losing a few down the stretch. The Angels could be a threat if their talent continues to gel, but they're nine games back of Texas and 11 behind Oakland. They would need to go on a rampage.
4. One impact trade has to take place.
Take your pick: either a front-of-the-rotation starting pitcher, or a right-handed power bat. Mike Olt's time in Texas should be over. As unfortunate as it may be, it's the nature of the business. Adrian Beltre is blocking him at third base and the Rangers have Joey Gallo, another masher at third, also in the prospect mix. They can afford to dangle Olt to headline a package for Matt Garza, for instance. Cliff Lee could require parting with Jurickson Profar, to which I'm not interested, but the Phillies need a third baseman, so they should at least listen to an Olt-centric deal. Maybe Jake Peavy comes cheap because of the fractured rib he recently suffered. He's aiming to return this weekend. It doesn't thrill me, but it's an option.
Alex Rios and Alfonso Soriano have been the most discussed right-handed hitters. Giancarlo Stanton would require saying adios to Profar, but I'm starting to come around to the idea.
5. The offense can't experience extended periods of silence.
The Rangers' bats were too often quiet during losing streaks in the first half. Texas is hitting .245 with runners in scoring position, third-lowest in all of MLB.
I don't call my favorite player out too often, but Elvis Andrus needs to pick up the pace from the batter's box. The 50 runs and 19 stolen bases are nice, but the average (.242), on-base percentage (.300) and OPS (.580) are simply abominable. It seems like every ball he puts into play right now is a ground ball that induces a double-play. Not fun.
On the plus side, Ian Kinsler is healthy, Adrian Beltre is starting to mash and Nelson Cruz may not suffer a suspension for his connection to Biogenesis in 2013, so let the raking continue in his contract year.
If the pieces fall into place, Texas could make a serious run in the postseason. Consider this was only a 90-win team in 2010 when it acquired Cliff Lee at the July 31 trade deadline. Something similar could happen this year. I wouldn't put it past Jon Daniels.
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