Monday, April 26, 2010

Starting pitchers early report card

Denver — Texas Rangers starting pitchers have produced quality starts in exactly half of their games this season.

The Rangers have nine quality starts in 18 outings. Texas is 8-10 and last in the AL West, but only three games back of division-leading Oakland.

Texas needs more quality starts to contend for the west crown. If it doesn't start happening with a few starters, the Rangers have Derek Holland and Brandon McCarthy pitching well in Triple-A Oklahoma City. General manager Jon Daniels has already shown with the promotion of Justin Smoak that he's not afraid to call up some talent from OKC.

Here's my early report card on the Rangers' starters after nearly a month of baseball:

Scott Feldman: C+

The 6-foot-7 Feldman was easily our best pitcher last year, racking up 17 wins, a 4.07 earned-run average, and 113 strikeouts (versus 65 walks) in 189.2 innings.

In 2010, it's been a bit of a roller coaster. Feldman, who has two quality starts in his four outings, began the season with consecutive seven-inning performances. I thought he looked good, with seven strikeouts against only one walk, after the first two outings.

His last two starts were dreadful, however. Feldman went 2.1 innings in his third start and 3.2 innings in his last start, giving up eight earned runs in that span.

I realize Feldman will never be an overpowering ace that strikes guys out, but he has to get his precision back. I've seen Scott in the zone numerous times, and when he's dialed in, he's locating his array of pitches, throwing to contact and keeping his pitch count way down. When Feldman is at his best, he doesn't have to be overpowering because he's extremely efficient.

Rich Harden: D

Harden is the opposite of Feldman. He's been an overpowering pitcher in the past, but only in glimpses. He's never sustained it for a full season.

This season, Harden has tossed a quality start once in his four outings. For what we're expecting of him and paying him ($6.5 million this year), he's been a disappointment so far.

I never know what to expect when Harden takes the hill. He's shown that he can still strike guys out (20 K's in 17.2 innings), but he's also shown that his control is nowhere near where it needs to be (18 walks).

What's interesting to me is Harden's best start to date, in which he lasted six innings at Cleveland on April 12, he only struck out two. What this tells me is he needs to pitch more to contact and trust the Rangers solid defense. This would help bring the pitch count down and maybe he could stay in the game past the fourth inning.

C.J. Wilson: A

Wilson has been the most reliable Rangers pitcher in the first month. The lefty's tossed quality starts in all three of his outings, and is 1-1 with a 1.37 ERA, 16 strikeouts and seven walks. He should be 2-1. Texas blew a 1-0 lead early in the season when Frank Francisco allowed three runs to the Blue Jays in the final inning.

If Wilson pitches like this for the remainder of the season, I'd be more than satisfied.

Colby Lewis: B

Lewis only has one quality start in his four outings, but he's been surprisingly effective. Lewis has struck out considerably more batters than originally anticipated (28 in 23.2 innings), but his walk total (12) is too high. That's why he doesn't have more quality starts.

Lewis has, however, been durable. Maybe those two years in Japan, where he displayed a natural ability to strike out hitters, has truly paid off. I loved how he recovered in Sunday's game against Detroit with 16 consecutive outs after allowing four runs in the first two innings.

Lewis has room for improvement with better control, but his unexpected power surge (two separate starts with 10 K's) has been a welcome sign in the first month.

Matt Harrison: B-

Had it not been for one bad start against Boston, Harrison's grade could have been approaching a high B or maybe even a low A.

I'm not expecting sterling numbers from the lefty. He's our fifth starter. His 4.24 ERA is decent, his 10 strikeouts to five walks is decent, and his two quality starts in three outings is decent. I have no major complaints on Harrison. He's been a solid No. 5 guy so far.

Too early?

I think, for now, it's a bit premature to replace Harden with Holland in the rotation. Each of the starters deserves a few more starts. No one's done anything catastrophic to lose their spots.

It's comforting, however, to know that Holland, McCarthy and Tommy Hunter are in Triple-A, should we need them. One of them (the guess here is Holland) will undoubtedly see the majors this season for reasons of injury or ineffectiveness.

There's a luxury in pitching depth the Rangers haven't been able to enjoy in the last decade or longer.

1 comment:

  1. I like our starting pitching despite the early inconsistency. However, the combination of Rich Harden's struggles and Derek Holland's success is going to make things interesting if it continues. You can't ignore what Holland is doing, but it's way too soon to pull the plug on Harden. You also have two guys in AA, Alexi Ogando and Tanner Scheppers, who are making a lot of noise.

    I don't envy Jon Daniels right now. He is walking a tightrope between winning now (or trying to win now) with experienced players and giving younger players in the organization a chance to step up and help the team. At what point do you sacrifice a few potential wins, and possibly a playoff spot, to let your young guys go through their growing pains? With fans and players all expecting and demanding to win now, it will be a harder sell replacing a steady veteran with a largely unproven rookie.

    In my opinion, this issue is forcing its way to the front since the team has struggled early. I don't want to see us caught in a position where we really aren't in contention AND our young prospects aren't being allowed to develop at the Major League level. As fired up about 2010 as everyone has been, I still feel like there is a lot of work left to do to prepare the organization for a sustained run of success.

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