Friday, December 17, 2010

Reaction to Cliff Lee picking Phillies, how the Rangers look ahead

Earlier this week on Wednesday, Cliff Lee did half of what I was hoping he'd do.

The good half: The lefty said thanks, but no thanks to the Yankees' big pockets and frustrating way of building a team each season.

The bad half: Lee also spurned the Rangers, and in a surprising development, signed a five-year, $120 million contract with the Philadelphia Phillies.

Initially, my reaction was natural disappointment. Lee was integral in the Rangers' magical World Series run last season. I made no secret of wanting him back so Texas had a legitimate ace for the long-term.

Turns out he didn't want to be in Texas on a five- or six-year contract.

Reports surfaced that Texas offered Lee a six-year deal. Those same reports said if the Rangers would have offered seven, Lee would have been pitching in Arlington next season. Owner Chuck Greenberg, president Nolan Ryan and general manager Jon Daniels didn't feel comfortable with a seven-year deal, though.

Lee must have really not wanted to play in New York. Yankees GM Brian Cashman offered seven years. I find that rather hilarious.

Here are my pros and cons for Lee not returning to Texas:

Pros

• We don't have to rely on Lee being a $20 million pitcher when he's nearly 40 years old. Had Lee signed a seven-year deal with Texas, he would have been 39 at the end of the contract. If he gets hurt, it would have likely been tough to spend a whole lot of additional money on other free agents.

• Texas can use some of the money it would have spent on Lee on a mixture of free agents and our own guys. Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz don't have long-term deals. I expect that to happen in the next year or two.

• In signing with the Phillies, at least Lee will pitch in the National League, where we don't have to face him on a regular basis. The sentence I mumbled most after Lee went to Philly: Hey, at least it's not the Yankees.

Cons

• Is C.J. Wilson ready to be a legitimate ace? If so, he's going to have to lower his walk total. I loved Ceej and his 204 innings last season, but 93 walks was too many. Last season, in the toughest games of the season, we turned to Lee to dominate. He did in the first two rounds of the playoffs. Not sure C.J. can do that yet.

• Texas may have to rely on unproven pitching talent to round out the rotation in 2011. As it stands, we know C.J., Colby Lewis and Tommy Hunter will be penciled into the rotation. But who's 4 and 5? Derek Holland, Matt Harrison, perhaps Neftali Feliz or Alexi Ogando out of the bullpen?

• The free agent market for pitchers is extra thin after Lee. The best available remaining names are Carl Pavano and Brandon Webb. Both appear to be huge risks.

I get the sense JD and the front office aren't done this offseason in adding names to improve the rotation. The Rangers not only have money to spend, but they have the prospects to potentially trade for a guy like Kansas City's Zack Greinke or Tampa Bay's Matt Garza.

I'd caution against trading the entire farm for either guy, though. Kansas City's initial offer for all of our top prospects was insane, particularly considering Greinke will be a free agent in two years. Garza will be a free agent in three years.

Should we trade for either pitcher, I'd feel more comfortable with a longer-term deal in place. Greinke and Garza (both 27) would be younger and cheaper options than Lee as well, which is appealing.

Might be better to wait until the trade deadline like we did last year with Lee and make a move. The Angels did that last year in July with Dan Haren (trading away Joe Saunders and a minor leaguer) and it worked out awfully well. The free agent market right now is just too thin.

I'll always remember how Lee pitched for the Rangers in the second half of last season and last postseason. He led the charge in the team's first postseason series victory in Rangers history. First AL Championship Series in team history. First World Series appearance in team history. You get the idea.

My personal favorite was when he silenced the Yankees in New York in Game 3 of the ALCS to take a 2-1 series lead. Eight innings, two hits, only one walk, 13 strikeouts. Amazing, epic, dominating, inspiring. In New York. I'll never forget that. There's arguably not another pitcher in baseball who could toss a line like that in New York other than Roy Halladay. And both will be wearing the same uniform next season. Yikes.

Lee was a vital part of an unforgettable season of baseball, undoubtedly my most memorable season of following a team, regardless of the sport. He could have returned to Texas for similar money and even one more year than Philadelphia's offer. He declined.

As a Rangers fan, all I can do is move on.

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