Monday, December 27, 2010

Reaction on Rangers signing Brandon Webb

He's not Cliff Lee, but the Rangers reportedly signing Brandon Webb seems like a good move, based on the terms.

First, it's a one-year deal, pending a physical. No reason to offer more, based on Webb's shoulder problems. He's pitched a total of four innings the last two seasons.

Second, the contract only guarantees $3 million (per this ESPN report), plus incentives, which could bump up the total package to $8-10 million.

I like this move. Taking a chance on Webb, who won the Cy Young Award in 2006 and won 22 games in 2008, is a logical move. The free agent market for starting pitching is ridiculously thin. I'm not blown away by Carl Pavano or Jeff Francis.

Webb is more proven, and if he could recapture a bit of his pitching from 2006-2008, when he was a true ace, I'd be satisfied. During that three-year span, Webb averaged 18.7 wins, 209.3 innings, 185 strikeouts, 62.3 walks and an earned-run average of 3.14. It'd be foolish to think he could replicate those numbers. But a small step down wouldn't be bad. We're not expecting Webb to be a No. 1. There's not nearly as much pressure on him as there was last year on Rich Harden, who clearly didn't pan out.

Webb could be the No. 3 in a rotation that might look like this:

C.J. Wilson
Colby Lewis
Brandon Webb
Derek Holland
Tommy Hunter

I'm not ready to completely give up on Scott Feldman, so he could have an outside chance at a spot. Maybe management decides to move Alexi Ogando or Neftali Feliz into the rotation. Or perhaps there's a trade coming for a guy like Matt Garza or Joe Blanton.

Either way, I like the look of the rotation with Webb as a No. 3. In his prime, he was a ground-ball-inducing workhorse who kept his ERA low and relied heavily on the double play. I remembered having Webb on my fantasy team in 2008, when he went 22-7, and I put him in my lineup for every one of his starts with confidence.

With Elvis Andrus and Ian Kinsler defending up the middle, I feel supremely confident that if Webb can induce grounders on a regular basis again, he'll be fine. Isn't that what pitching coach Mike Maddux has been preaching — pitching to contact? Webb doesn't have to strike out 194 guys like he did in 2007. He just has to keep the ball in play.

The low risk, high reward mentality didn't work out last season for Harden. But since it was low risk (one-year contract), we're moving on without Harden and not even blinking. I look at last year's Vladimir Guerrero signing (one year, $6 million guaranteed) the same way. That worked out quite famously (.300 average, 29 homers, 115 RBIs).

Maybe the Webb signing will be just as rewarding.

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