Thursday, June 16, 2011

Mavs week special: How will Dallas roster look next year?

Dallas — In an attempt to predict how much of a chance the Dallas Mavericks have of repeating as NBA champions next season, I wanted to take a look at how the roster might look in 2011-12.

These players, from the primary rotation, are set to return: Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Kidd, Jason Terry, Shawn Marion, Brendan Haywood, Rodrigue Beaubois.

These players, from the primary rotation, will be free agents in the summer of 2011: Tyson Chandler, J.J. Barea, Caron Butler, Peja Stojakovic, Deshawn Stevenson, Brian Cardinal.

If I'm Mark Cuban, my first order of business this offseason, aside from continuing to enjoy the heck of out the NBA Championship, would be to start negotiating with Chandler. The 7-foot center is in the prime of his career at 28 years old, and was one of the most instrumental pieces to the championship puzzle. Chandler personifies coach Rick Carlisle's new philosophy of Mavs basketball, one that prides itself on lockdown defense. I expect Chandler to be back.

Barea's stock has flown through the roof after his incredible performances in the playoffs. It should be interesting to see how much money he will be offered this offseason, along with how many years. At age 26, the 6-foot speedster is just entering the prime of his career.

Butler's story carries some intrigue as well. How much money and how many years will the 31-year-old be offered after knee surgery? He should be ready to go to start next season, and the Mavs could be at an advantage to sign Butler if other teams shy away from the injury.

I think Cuban does what it takes to keep Chandler, but I'm not so sure about the rest. With Kidd due back to play out the last year of his contract, Barea would likely be a back-up next season in Dallas. He could certainly start somewhere else.

A sure-fire starting five next year would look like this:

1. Jason Kidd
2. Jason Terry
3. Shawn Marion
4. Dirk Nowitzki
5. Tyson Chandler

An optimal starting five next year would look like this:

1. Jason Kidd
2. Caron Butler
3. Shawn Marion
4. Dirk Nowitzki
5. Tyson Chandler

Check out a potential second unit:

1B: J.J. Barea
2B: Jason Terry (and Rodrigue Beaubois)
3B: Deshawn Stevenson (and Peja Stojakovic)
4B: Brian Cardinal
5B: Brendan Haywood

This could be a loaded roster if Beaubois, still only 23, matures into a regular rotation player, and if Butler re-signs and proves he's healthy. The Mavs obviously won the title without both players playing any minutes in the postseason.

The chances for repeating would likely be possible, but not probable. Oklahoma City isn't going anywhere, San Antonio probably has another one or two elite years left, and the Lakers will always be a factor as long as Kobe Bryant is around.

But if the Mavs bring back some players and look a bit into outside free agent signings, I like their chances just as much as anyone else next year in the West.

For now, next year's roster construction is pretty uncertain. I'll just go back to enjoying the title for now. Can't go wrong with that.

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