Giant Payroll Doesn't Necessarily Translate to Success Anymore in MLB

I noticed a common theme this weekend with some of the top payrolls in Major League Baseball. Two of the top three could very well miss the playoffs (bolded) in 2013.

Take a look at the complete list here. To be clear, we're talking opening day payroll in 2013:

• 1. New York Yankees: $228,995,945
• 2. L.A. Dodgers: $216,302,909
• 3. Philadelphia Phillies: $159,578,214

The Yankees (57-53) are in fourth place in the AL East and 4.5 games behind in the wild card race. The Phillies (50-60) are 10 games behind the wild card. Eek. 

In fact, a glance at the top third of the list reveals six of the top 10 payrolls could miss the playoffs (bolded) this year:

• 4. Boston Red Sox: $158,967,286
• 5. Detroit Tigers: $149,046,844
• 6. San Francisco Giants: $142,180,333
• 7. L.A. Angels: $142,165,250
• 8. Texas Rangers: $127,197,575
• 9. Chicago White Sox: $124,065,277
• 10. Toronto Blue Jays: $118,244,039

This is refreshing, especially in a sport without a salary cap. The Yankees' way of buying rings no longer flies every year. In fact, Alex Rodriguez and his $27 million annual salary (larger, curiously, than the entire Astros team) is a major detriment to New York. That's why the Bronx Bombers haven't been a major player in free agent deals lately. Thanks to A-Rod's ridiculous salary, Yankees GM Brian Cashman can't simply pick and choose from the free agent lot. Granted, the Yankees have a slew of injuries this season, and an argument could be made they'd be in the postseason with a healthy A-Rod, Mark Teixeira, Derek Jeter, Curtis Granderson, Kevin Youkilis for the whole year. 

But consider these two situations in 2013:

• Tampa Bay Rays: 66-45, leading wild card and 1 game behind Boston in AL East. Payroll: $57,030,272 (28th in MLB)
• Pittsburgh Pirates: 67-44, leading the NL Central. Payroll: $66,289524 (27th in MLB)

Relying on free agents in the offseason is so early 2000's. The most valuable commodities in today's game are prospects. You don't have to commit major dollars to them for the first six years of service time. The key is finding a cornerstone to surround young players and showing that dude the money. The Rays found theirs in Evan Longoria, and the Pirates found theirs in Andrew McCutchen. 

Of course, cornerstone deals can be taken to the extreme. See Pujols, Albert and Rodriguez, Alex, two of the worst (and richest) contracts in pro sports. The Angels handed Pujols a 10-year deal for $252 million at age 31; the Yankees signed A-Rod to $275 million for 10 years at age 32. Yyyyeah. Good luck with the back end of those deals. If the Angels aren't going to win now when Pujols is in his prime, then that deal will be historically abysmal. 

I could never be a GM. But I'd never sign anyone above age 30 to a 10-year deal worth $250+ million. Too much risk (injury, normal player decline). 

The Cardinals and the Rangers are the two model franchises in baseball, from my vantage point. St. Louis took a PR hit letting Pujols go, but it was probably one of the best decisions in the history of the franchise. They're 65-45 this year (11th-highest payroll) with a loaded roster in the big leagues and in the minors. They will contend for a World Series title for the rest of the decade. 

Rangers GM Jon Daniels didn't make a move at this year's trade deadline because the asking price for prospects was probably way too high. That's what everyone's going after these days. Fans may not have loved it, but this team is built for now and the future. That's the beauty of the framework Daniels has built. 

The franchises with the most sustained success nowadays seem to combine a competitive payroll with stocking the farm. Find that winning combination and you'll contend on a yearly basis.